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AI Peak Debate: What Big Money and Manufacturing Data Are Really Telling Us MACRO & AI CYCLE Part 1. In the AI Peak Debate, What Are the “Big Money” Investors Really Looking At? — From Warren Buffett’s “Last” Bet to Hedge Funds’ Risk-Off Moves From 2024 through 2025, global financial markets have basically revolved around one topic: AI. NVIDIA has dominated the GPU market, Meta has been scaling up AI models and data centers, and Google and Microsoft have been pouring tens of billions of dollars into the generative AI race to secure the lead. This naturally shaped the overall direction of the equity markets. In fact, a large chunk of the S&P 500’s gains between 2023 and 2025 came from the “Magnificent 7 (M7)” mega-cap tech stocks. Some analysts even went as far as to say: “More ...

📘 Part 1. When the World’s Factories Slow Down — What the Manufacturing Data Is Telling Us In early November 2025, the global economy once again found itself under the shadow of slowdown. After several years of post-pandemic recovery, global manufacturing has clearly entered a period of “cooling down.” According to the latest reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and S&P Global, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for major manufacturing countries has stayed below 50 for eight consecutive months. That is the longest stretch of contraction since COVID-19, and it signals that “demand shortfall” is spreading across the world’s production network. 1️⃣ Manufacturing PMI: A World Map Below 50 China: 49.3 (below 50 for 7 straight months) South Korea: 48.8 (new export orders −5.2%) Japan: 48.7 (export slowdown + rising costs) Germany: 44.9 (lowest since the 2012 eurozone debt crisis) United States (ISM Manufactur...

📘 Part I. The “AI Bubble Warning” That Shook Global Markets — The Heat Is Starting to Fade In early November 2025, global stock markets turned sharply lower. Technology shares led the sell-off, with the Nasdaq Composite down about –3.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index off –4.5%. Analysts said the pullback signaled that the AI-themed rally that had powered markets since 2023 may have reached a tipping point. This section unpacks why the term “AI bubble” began circulating, what warning signs were flashing, and the structural forces that triggered the current correction. --- 1️⃣ Signs of Excess — When Expectations Overtake Reality The defining feature of this rally was speed — expectations outran fundamentals. Over the past two years, stocks linked to AI—semiconductors, servers, and data-center infrastructure—soared. NVIDIA surged roughly ten-fold from 2022 levels, AMD rose five-fold, and Supermicro skyrocketed fifteen-fold. But profits didn’t keep up. NVIDIA’s Q3 2...