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📌 JPMorgan CEO’s 2026 Recession Warning ― Red Flags in the U.S. Economy and What They Mean for Global Investors --- Part I. Why the U.S. Economy Looks Strong but Feels Fragile As of 2025, perspectives on the U.S. economy are deeply divided. On the surface, things appear resilient: employment figures are stable, consumer spending remains robust, and the stock market is booming. Yet, beneath the surface, cracks are beginning to show. This is why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon openly warned that “a U.S. recession in 2026 cannot be ruled out.” --- 📊 On the Surface, the U.S. Economy Looks Strong There are certainly reasons for optimism. The U.S., as the world’s largest economy, still shows steady momentum: Unemployment at 3.8% (September 2025): Historically low, demonstrating a rapid recovery from the pandemic shock. Sustained consumer spending: Household consumption accounts for about 70% of U.S. GDP and remains vibrant. Industries such as travel, dining, and leisure have not only ...

The Shaking Dollar Hegemony ― Will It Lose Its Crown? --- Part I. How Did the Dollar Rise to the Throne? When we talk about today’s global economy, it is impossible to leave out the U.S. dollar. The dollar is not just a currency; it functions as the language of international trade and the unit of measurement for investors. According to the 2024 report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 88% of global foreign exchange transactions involve the U.S. dollar. For comparison: the euro accounts for 31%, the Japanese yen 17%, and the Chinese yuan 7%. Even when combined, they do not reach half the share of the dollar. This means that whether it’s an investor in New York, a commodity trader in Brazil, a business owner in Africa, or an exporter in South Korea, global trade is almost impossible without using the dollar. But when, and how, did the dollar ascend to this “throne”? --- 1. The Bretton Woods System ― The Marriage of Gold and the Dollar In 1944, as World War II w...

📌 U.S. Economic Briefing – October 6, 2025 As of October 6, 2025, the U.S. economy is moving under the combined weight of several factors: the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, OPEC+ oil output decisions, and the dynamics of equities and alternative assets. This article also examines what these developments mean for the Korean and global economies. --- I. U.S. Federal Government Shutdown and the Data Gap Background of the shutdown On October 1, 2025, the U.S. federal government entered another partial shutdown as Congress once again failed to reach a budget agreement. The deadlock stems mainly from disputes over fiscal deficit management and whether to cut defense and social spending. Shutdowns are not new in U.S. history: 21 days in 1995 (Clinton administration) 16 days in 2013 (Obama administration) 35 days in 2018–19 (Trump administration, the longest on record) This time, however, what makes the 2025 shutdown distinct is...

Dollar Anxiety → Why Investors Flock to Bitcoin and Gold ― The Rising Power of Alternative Safe Havens in Global Markets --- Introduction — A Shaken Reserve Currency and the Rush for Shelter In the fall of 2025, global financial markets are once again fixated on the U.S. dollar. Since the Bretton Woods system of 1944, the dollar has functioned as the centerpiece of international monetary order, anchoring trade, investment, and foreign exchange reserves. To many, the dollar has long been synonymous with a “safe haven.” Yet paradoxically, the stronger its dominance appears, the more fragile its foundations seem. A combination of mounting U.S. fiscal deficits, the Federal Reserve’s uncertain monetary stance, and repeated political deadlocks in Congress has triggered an uncomfortable question: Can the dollar truly remain the world’s ultimate safe asset? Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly seeking alternatives. Two assets stand out: gold—the timeless store of value...