📌 GLP-1 · Obesity drugs · Global economy

The “Obesity Drug Revolution” and a New Global Economic Map

Over three parts, we look at how GLP-1 obesity drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound) are not only changing bodies, but reshaping healthcare costs, consumer spending, industry structure, and investment flows.

Part 1

📘 Part 1. The “Obesity Drug Revolution” – Drugs that reshape bodies, and the economy

By the mid-2020s, one of the most frequently cited themes in global financial markets and Wall Street reports is “obesity drugs (GLP-1 class)”. Until recently, the weight-loss market mostly meant exercise, diet, and supplements. Today, the landscape looks completely different.

Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy,
and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound are no longer viewed as simple “weight-loss shots.” They are seen as drugs that can reshape:

▪ How national healthcare budgets are structured
▪ How households spend money
▪ The food, beverage, and fast-food industries
▪ Insurance, retail, and the broader healthcare ecosystem

In other words, they are treated as “variables that can transform the economy and society as a whole.”

1️⃣ Why are they such a big deal? – “A single pill that can move GDP” ▶

(1) Obesity is no longer “just a lifestyle issue”

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2022, about 43% of adults worldwide are overweight or obese, and roughly 16% are classified as obese (BMI ≥ 30).

The World Obesity Federation estimates that by 2035, the direct and indirect costs of obesity could reach about $4 trillion annually – around 3% of global GDP.

Those costs are not just hospital bills. They also include:

Treatment of chronic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease
Lost productivity due to premature death and early retirement tied to obesity
Lower efficiency and sick days at the corporate and national level

– all of which are counted in that total.

In short, obesity is increasingly seen as

“a personal weight issue” → “a structural risk that eats into a country’s economy.”

That’s the shift in perception.

(2) The U.S. case – the scale of healthcare costs

The United States is a classic “obesity superpower.” Roughly 40% of U.S. adults are obese, one of the highest rates among OECD countries.

Various studies estimate that in the U.S., incremental medical costs related to obesity exceed $170 billion per year. Those costs include:

Diagnosis and drug treatment for type 2 diabetes
Treatment of hypertension, heart attacks, strokes, and other cardiovascular events
Additional treatment costs for sleep apnea, arthritis, fatty liver, and cancers such as breast and colorectal cancer

These costs are largely borne by public programs (Medicare and Medicaid) and private insurers, which means they directly pressure government budgets and insurer balance sheets.

Now imagine GLP-1 obesity drugs that can:

Reduce body weight meaningfully (on average by 15–20% or more), and
Demonstrate, over the long term, a reduction in events like heart attacks and strokes

At that point, you’re talking about a structural reshaping of healthcare spending at the national level.

That is why these drugs are sometimes described not as “weight-loss shots,”
but as drugs that “could rescue national health insurance systems.”

2️⃣ How GLP-1 drugs work – “Turning off hunger” ▶

(1) What exactly is GLP-1?

GLP-1 stands for Glucagon-Like Peptide-1, one of the incretin hormones released from the gut in response to food intake.

This hormone has three major actions:

It stimulates insulin secretion from the pancreas, helping lower blood sugar after meals.
It slows gastric emptying, keeping food in the stomach longer and prolonging satiety.
It acts on the hypothalamus to suppress appetite, reducing “I’m hungry” signals and strengthening “I’ve had enough” signals.

GLP-1 drugs (such as semaglutide and tirzepatide) artificially boost or mimic this hormone and amplify these three effects.

As a result:

What used to be a matter of “just resist a bit harder” when dieting

turns into a state where you “simply don’t feel like eating as much in the first place.”

In other words, the battle of willpower is replaced by hormonal recalibration.

(2) How much weight do people actually lose?

Clinical trials make the power of GLP-1 drugs very clear.

Wegovy (semaglutide)
In the STEP trial in obese adults,
patients lost, on average, more than 15% of their body weight.
Zepbound (tirzepatide)
In a 72-week (about 1 year and 4 months) NEJM trial,
patients achieved up to 22.5% weight loss.

Those numbers are extremely difficult to achieve with lifestyle changes and oral medications alone. These injections are delivering weight loss on par with bariatric surgeries like gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy.

Of course, there are side effects.

The most common: nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation, and other GI symptoms
In some patients, serious issues such as pancreatitis and gallbladder disease have been reported
There are ongoing studies on long-term risks like loss of muscle mass and nutritional imbalances with chronic use

So in clinical guidelines, these drugs are not “miracle cures,” but are framed as:

Powerful options for obesity and diabetes treatment,
but drugs that must be used under specialist supervision and continuous monitoring.

That’s the consensus.

3️⃣ Market size – “Beyond pharma, a massive ecosystem” ▶

(1) Growth trajectory of the GLP-1 market

According to global investment banks, the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes drug market has evolved into a major “mega-theme” sector in just a few years.

In 2020, global GLP-1 sales tied to obesity and diabetes were around $5–10 billion.
By 2024, estimates put the market at roughly $15 billion.
JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and others project $100–150 billion by around 2030.

That puts GLP-1 drugs in the same league as EV batteries and AI semiconductors as one of the “structural growth sectors of the 2020s.”

(2) Market share – essentially a two-horse race

Today, two companies dominate the GLP-1 space.

Novo Nordisk
Flagship products: Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus
A long-time leader in insulin and diabetes care
In 2024, revenue reached about $42 billion (~DKK 290 billion), up more than 20% year-over-year.
Eli Lilly
Flagship products: Mounjaro, Zepbound
Driving explosive growth in obesity and diabetes with tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist
Developing multiple follow-on drugs, including agents to preserve muscle and directly target fat cells

Sell-side estimates suggest that in 2024, GLP-1 market share roughly breaks down as:

Novo Nordisk: around 60%
Eli Lilly: around 35%
Others (generics and late entrants): under 5%

In other words, a de facto duopoly.

(3) When a single company moves an entire national economy

Novo Nordisk is no longer just “a big Danish pharma company.” It is increasingly viewed as a core pillar of the entire Danish economy.

Between 2023 and 2024, its market cap at one point exceeded Denmark’s annual GDP.

Analysts note that Novo Nordisk’s contribution to employment, capital investment, and tax revenue explains a significant share of Denmark’s GDP growth.

In other words, Denmark is now experiencing the unusual situation where “a country’s growth rate and currency are partially tied to a single obesity drug franchise.”

From an investor’s perspective:

▪ GLP-1 drugs are not just another product line in big pharma.
▪ They’re a structural growth engine reshaping national and industry-level economic landscapes.

That’s how they are being priced in.

Summary – Key takeaways from Part 1

Obesity has already become “a structural risk eroding about 3% of global GDP.”
GLP-1 drugs are not simple diet aids, but structural therapies that modulate appetite and metabolism at the hormonal level.
15–22% weight loss in non-surgical treatment is unprecedented, and is changing how we treat obesity and diabetes.
The GLP-1 market is on track to become a $100–150 billion megamarket after 2030.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly effectively share the market, now influencing national economies (like Denmark) and sitting among the top market-cap names in Europe and the U.S.

Part 2

📘 Part 2. A “less-eating world” and the industries it disrupts

The spread of obesity drugs is about much more than just losing weight. Because these drugs directly touch the human “appetite system,” one of our most basic drives, they inevitably reshape consumer behavior, industry structures, and corporate profit models.

In 2024–2025, one line you hear again and again from Wall Street analysts is:

“When people eat less, the economy eats differently.”
In other words, once people consume fewer calories, the entire economy reallocates.

1️⃣ Food & beverage – From calories to protein ▶

After starting GLP-1 drugs, patients’ daily calorie intake typically falls by about 30–35%. That’s not just “eating a bit less.” It’s a reduced preference for sugary, calorie-dense foods.

🍔 The fast-food squeeze

U.S. investment bank Jefferies projects that as GLP-1 adoption rises, U.S. fast-food and snack sales could drop by 3–4%. For the food industry, that’s a “generational risk event.”

McDonald’s: explicitly mentioned GLP-1 as a factor in softening demand on its 3Q 2024 earnings call.
Coca-Cola and PepsiCo: rapidly increasing the share of low-sugar and zero-sugar products.
Krispy Kreme: rolling out promotions targeted at GLP-1 users to cushion the impact.

In short, the old pattern of “salty, sweet, highly stimulating food” is gradually giving way to a “health- and protein-centric” consumption model.

🥗 The companies that benefit

On the flip side, companies riding the “eat less, but eat better” trend are seeing share prices climb.

▪ Quest Nutrition — a leader in protein bars and shakes, with 2024 sales up 14%
▪ Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) — strong growth in low-carb convenience foods
▪ Herbalife, Huel, and Lenny & Larry’s — all expanding marketing specifically aimed at GLP-1 users

In the first half of 2024, the U.S. protein foods market grew 11% year-over-year, with “meal replacement protein bars and shakes” accounting for 60% of that growth.

In other words, the shift from a “calories economy” to a “nutritional efficiency economy” has begun. This is forcing food companies to rethink their portfolios. PepsiCo, for example, has announced plans to generate half its revenue from “health categories” within the next five years.

2️⃣ Retail & dining – From food to experiences ▶

As people lose weight, they tend to spend more on clothes, accessories, sports gear, and travel – all the ways they express themselves. This isn’t just a health fad. It’s a qualitative shift in consumption.

U.S. retailers have started calling this the “Post-GLP-1 Effect.”

🏃‍♀️ “When your body feels lighter, your spending does too”

▪ Lululemon, Nike, Under Armour
In regions with a higher share of GLP-1 users (such as the American South and West),
3Q 2024 sales grew by +12–15% on average (Bloomberg Retail Report, 2024).

▪ Peloton
Saw an uptick in new users focused on “post-weight-loss maintenance.”
Monthly re-subscription rates for workout content (about $44/month) rose by 10%.

▪ WW International (Weight Watchers)
Historically focused on coaching-based diet programs,
it pivoted in 2023 to offer dedicated diet tracking and app features for GLP-1 users.
Membership rose 25% in the second half of 2024.

In effect, the center of gravity is shifting from “eating” to “experience.” Retailers are rebuilding their revenue models around “things to do” rather than “things to eat.”

🍴 Meanwhile, traditional dining is in structural adjustment

Supermarket and ready-meal (HMR) market growth turned negative in 2024, down about 2%.
Frozen pizza and snack sales fell roughly 5–7% compared to 2022.
Restaurants are rolling out more “GLP-1-friendly menus” (low-carb, high-protein options).

Chipotle, for instance, launched a high-protein bowl aimed at GLP-1 users, which went viral on social media under the hashtag “#OzempicBowl.”

3️⃣ Insurance & healthcare – The rise of a “preventive economy” ▶

GLP-1 drugs are forcing a major structural shift in healthcare. Obesity used to be framed mainly as a factor that “makes treatment more expensive.” Now it’s being reframed as something that can be mitigated by investing in prevention infrastructure.

💊 How insurers are changing their stance

UnitedHealth is a prime example. Initially, the company treated obesity drugs as “cosmetic” medications and excluded them from coverage. But once their cardiovascular benefits were demonstrated in clinical trials, UnitedHealth began to offer partial coverage under certain conditions in 2024.

▪ Annual GLP-1 treatment cost per person: about $1,300
▪ Annual savings from fewer long-term complications (diabetes, heart attacks, etc.): more than $4,000
(Harvard Medical School Health Economics, 2024)

From the insurer’s perspective, this clearly looks like “short-term cost < long-term savings.”

🧠 The rise of healthcare IT and data companies

Managing GLP-1 patients over time requires data on blood glucose, weight, heart rate, and dietary habits. That’s why digital health companies like Apple, Dexcom, Abbott, Fitbit, and Noom are emerging as key players in the new “GLP-1 monitoring market.”

For example:

Dexcom’s G7 continuous glucose monitor is already used to track glucose stability in GLP-1 users.
Noom formally launched a dedicated nutrition and behavioral coaching service for GLP-1 users in 2024.

In short, we’re watching the formation of a new ecosystem where “drugs + apps + insurance” are tightly integrated.

📈 Summary – Three industry-level shifts in a world that eats less

Axis of change	Old paradigm	Post-GLP-1 era
Food & beverage	Flavor and calories	Protein and function
Retail & consumption	Food-centric spending	Experience, exercise, fashion
Insurance & healthcare	Treatment-centric costs	Prevention- and data-driven economy

In short, GLP-1 drugs go far beyond pharma. They are injecting a “health premium” across industries. People taking these drugs aren’t just changing their weight – they’re reshaping the direction of capital flows.

Part 3

📘 Part 3. In a slimming world, where does the money flow?

GLP-1 obesity drugs are no longer just a medical breakthrough. They are reshaping consumer behavior, industry value chains, fiscal policy, and investor thinking. The key question in the Post-GLP-1 era is: “If people eat less and work longer, how does that change the efficiency of the entire economy?”

1️⃣ How investors see it – “As waistlines shrink, margins expand” ▶

The obesity-drug boom is reshaping profit margins not only across healthcare, but in food, consumer goods, insurance, and retail.

💊 Pharma – “Monopoly-grade innovation and high barriers mean excess returns”

Novo Nordisk: passed a $550 billion market cap in 2024, becoming the most valuable company in Europe. Its operating margin exceeds 45%, among the highest of any global pharma giant. Exports from its GLP-1 franchise account for a large chunk of Denmark’s GDP growth.

Eli Lilly: of its $42 billion in 2024 revenue, more than 35% came from GLP-1 drugs. From 2025 onward, it plans to expand into oral GLP-1 and combination therapies that preserve muscle mass. Its P/E multiple has already topped 70x, yet Wall Street still views it as a growth stock.

Together, these two companies enjoy a triple moat of technology, manufacturing capacity, and clinical data, making it likely they will earn outsized profits for at least the next decade.

🥗 Health food & fitness – “Invest in lifestyle, not just diets”

GLP-1 users do cut food spending in the short term, but over the long run they spend more on staying healthy: gym memberships, exercise gear, and nutrition. This has led to a new investor mantra: “healthy consumers are the new core market.”

Lululemon, Nike, and Planet Fitness have all reported sales growth of 10% or more in regions where GLP-1 usage is highest, such as the American Southwest and Texas.

Companies like Herbalife, Huel, and Garden of Life, which focus on protein and functional nutrition, have seen sales growth move into the 15–20% range since 2024.

The result is a hybrid health ecosystem combining exercise, protein, and subscription apps. Thanks to GLP-1-driven appetite suppression, this ecosystem is drawing in new demand rather than just cannibalizing old markets.

🏢 Food & beverage – “Portfolio overhaul is a matter of survival”

Consumer giants like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and McDonald’s are rapidly reshaping their portfolios toward low-sugar, zero-sugar, and “better for you” products to stay relevant in the GLP-1 era.

Coca-Cola aims to have more than 50% of its portfolio in low- or zero-sugar products by 2025.
PepsiCo is acquiring protein-snack brands and expanding its “health nutrition” lines.
McDonald’s plans to test “Protein Bowls” and “GLP-1-friendly” menu items starting in late 2024.

Historically, the question was “How do we get people to eat more?” Now it’s “How do we design products people will still choose, even if they eat less?”

That is the new rule of the game: “protect margins in a world of lower volume.”

💻 Insurance & healthcare IT – “Data completes the drug”

The spread of GLP-1 therapy has created a need for real-time health monitoring. In that environment, healthcare IT companies are emerging as central players in a new platform-driven ecosystem.

Dexcom and Abbott are evolving from glucose sensor vendors into “personalized data platforms for GLP-1 patients.”
Apple, Fitbit, and Noom are integrating weight, activity, and dietary data and sharing it with insurers.
UnitedHealth and Anthem are building AI models to predict risk among GLP-1 users.

This convergence of “pharma + data + insurance” is building a preventive-focused industry structure. Long term, that offers a dual revenue model: lower medical costs and monetizable health data.

📈 ETFs and sector plays

GLP-1-linked bets are no longer just about stock picking. They are now a sector-level ETF theme.

▪ XHE (Healthcare Equipment ETF) – focused on devices and monitoring tools
▪ IHI (Medical Devices ETF) – broader healthcare technology exposure
▪ XBI (Biotech ETF) – smaller biotech names developing next-gen therapeutics
▪ PINK (Women’s Health ETF) – overweight exposure to metabolic and hormone-related health companies

These ETFs provide not only GLP-1 exposure, but a broader stake in preventive medicine and the emerging “longevity economy.”

2️⃣ Social change – The rise of a “health premium” economy ▶

GLP-1 is embedding the idea that “health is an asset” across society. A slim body is no longer just about looks; it is increasingly a symbol of productivity and efficiency.

💼 National productivity

OECD data suggest that if a country’s obesity rate falls by 10 percentage points, average labor productivity rises by 2–3%. The mechanism isn’t more hours worked, but fewer obesity-related chronic conditions – less diabetes, arthritis, and sleep apnea, and fewer sick days.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that rising GLP-1 adoption
could boost long-term U.S. GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points.

In that sense, obesity drugs are effectively a productivity technology.

🧩 Corporate behavior – ESG meets health

Companies are also starting to see employee health as an investment, not just a cost center.

Tech giants like Google, Meta, and Apple have expanded GLP-1 coverage in employee health plans since 2024.
Several global banks are incorporating weight, blood pressure, and activity data into internal ESG metrics.
Teams with higher participation in wellness programs tend to show higher productivity and retention.

The formula “health management equals corporate competitiveness” is taking root. Some companies are adding “Employee Health & Longevity” to their internal ESG scorecards alongside Environment, Social, and Governance metrics.

3️⃣ Conclusion – “Not just a pill, but a new social contract” ▶

The GLP-1 revolution is doing more than helping people shed pounds. It is driving a reset of economic structures and a redefinition of the social contract.

As obesity falls, healthcare costs decline.
As healthcare costs decline, public finances improve.
As public finances improve, productivity and consumption can rise again.

This virtuous cycle is not just a medical innovation. It represents a structural improvement in the efficiency of the entire economy.

In short, we’ve entered an era where a single drug can simultaneously reshape
individual lives, corporate strategy, and national budgets.

Sources

World Obesity Atlas 2024 (World Obesity Federation)
Morgan Stanley, “GLP-1: Appetite for Change” (2024)
NEJM, “Tirzepatide for Obesity Treatment” (2023)
Harvard Medical School Health Economics Report (2024)
OECD Health Statistics (2024)
Jefferies Equity Research (2024)

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How GLP-1 Drugs Like Ozempic and Mounjaro Are Reshaping the Global Economy (and Your Portfolio)