SpaceX Stock After IPO: Is $135 Still a Buy in Late 2026?

A deep look at the post-IPO journey, earnings, capital spending, lockups, and what $135 really means for investors.

Part 1. After the Historic IPO – Why Did SpaceX Stock Return to Its Offering Price?

On June 12, 2026, the global financial markets paid close attention to one company. Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX, listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The IPO price was set at $135. The initial offering size was around $75 billion, but after the full exercise of the overallotment option, the total amount raised reached approximately $85.7 billion. At the time, the company was valued at roughly $1.77 trillion. Many investors were excited by those numbers. It was the moment when Elon Musk’s company finally became available to everyday investors.

The mood right after the listing was electric. Shares opened above $150 and at one point climbed into the mid-$225 range. The market was pricing in strong growth in Starlink subscribers, progress on Starship reusability, and the emerging AI business all at once. Yet within less than two months, the atmosphere shifted. By the close on August 24, 2026, the stock was back at exactly $135. After a meaningful pullback from the highs, it had settled near the original offering price. Along the way it even touched a low around $104.

Several concrete events drove this move. In early August the company reported its first quarterly results as a public company. Second-quarter 2026 revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year and well ahead of expectations. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from roughly $1 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191 percent to $3.5 billion. On the surface the growth looked strong. The market’s reaction, however, was restrained. The reason was capital spending. Capex in the same quarter ran between roughly $18 billion and $18.4 billion—about 2.3 times revenue. Roughly $15.8 billion of that went into AI data-center infrastructure. Investors began focusing on the pace of cash burn.

Lockup releases added further pressure. At the time of the IPO only a limited portion of the shares was freely tradable. Around August 6 approximately 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale, and around August 20 another roughly 319 million shares were unlocked. The increased supply weighed on the stock. Even the news that Starlink had surpassed 12 million subscribers and that AI segment revenue had grown about 250 percent year over year was not enough to lift the share price in the short term. Growth was clear, but the cost of that growth looked high.

One investor put it this way: “At the IPO we were buying the dream. After the earnings report we started looking at the numbers and the cash flow.” That captures where SpaceX stock stands today. The $135 offering price is no longer just a starting point; it has become a level the market is re-evaluating.

Part 2. Separating the Positives from the Negatives – What Is Moving the Stock?

The positive case for SpaceX remains clear. First is the diversification of its business. Starlink continues to be the most reliable cash generator. Reaching 12 million subscribers is more than a headline number. Growing contracts with airlines, enterprises, and governments have helped keep average revenue stable. Multi-year Starshield awards from the U.S. government worth several billion dollars are another important positive. On the launch side, ongoing Starship test flights are moving the company closer to full reusability. If launch costs can be reduced significantly over time, the competitive gap with rivals could widen further.

The growth rate of the AI segment is also hard to ignore. Second-quarter AI revenue rose roughly 250 percent year over year to about $2.6 billion. A steady stream of new cloud-computing contracts shows the company is expanding beyond pure space activities into infrastructure. Comments from Elon Musk suggesting AI revenue could reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030 have added to the optimism. The average analyst price target sits around $226. Yet the range is wide: the lowest targets fall to $75 while some of the highest approach $800. Even Wall Street has not reached a clear consensus on how to value SpaceX.

The negatives, however, are equally real. The biggest concern is the pace of cash consumption. Capex of roughly $18 billion in a single quarter means the company is still not fully funding its growth from operations. Although the IPO left the balance sheet with substantial cash, a sustained spending rate at this level could eventually raise questions about additional capital needs. Heavy investment in AI data centers also makes near-term profitability harder to achieve.

The staggered lockup schedule remains a source of supply pressure. SpaceX’s lockups do not expire all at once. Large blocks already became available on August 6 and August 20, with further releases scheduled for September 9, September 24, October 9, October 24, after the third-quarter earnings report, and around December 8. Multiple tranches will continue to enter the market over time, including the formal 180-day lockup expiration. Elon Musk’s own shares remain locked under a separate schedule until 2027, but the potential selling by other insiders and early investors can still increase volatility.

Valuation is another issue. The company is still not profitable on a net-income basis while carrying a very large market capitalization. If growth slows relative to expectations, the stock can correct quickly. On top of that, the market is still debating whether to view SpaceX primarily as a space company or as an AI and infrastructure company. That identity question makes the valuation debate even more complicated.

History offers a useful parallel. Other high-growth stocks have followed a similar pattern after their IPOs: a strong story drives the shares higher, then the stock settles back near the offering price once investors start weighing the actual numbers and cash requirements more carefully. SpaceX is currently on that testing ground. The long-term story remains intact, while near-term concerns are weighing on the share price.

Part 3. Is $135 an Opportunity or a Trap? What Investors Should Consider

The $135 level carries several meanings. Matching the original IPO price gives it psychological weight. After a sharp pullback from the highs, the return to this area can be read as a point where short-term speculative money has exited and longer-term investors may begin to show interest. Some institutional accounts are reportedly treating the zone as a potential place to build positions gradually. At the same time, while $135 may act as a psychological reference point because of its status as the offering price, it is still too early to call it a confirmed support level.

Simply being near the IPO price is not a sufficient reason to buy. SpaceX remains a classic high-growth, high-volatility stock. Investors who believe in the durable expansion of Starlink and the longer-term potential of the AI business may view current levels as reasonable for a multi-year holding period. Those more concerned about the scale of capital spending, the ongoing lockup releases, and the still-unproven path to consistent profitability will want additional confirmation before committing capital.

Looking ahead, several factors matter most. Will revenue growth remain strong in the next quarter? Can capital spending be moderated? Will losses in the AI segment begin to narrow? Progress on Starship commercialization and further growth in Starlink’s enterprise and government contracts will also be important. Trading volumes around each successive lockup release deserve close attention. Over a longer horizon, how the market ultimately categorizes SpaceX—as a space company or as an AI infrastructure company—could significantly influence valuation.

One long-term investor’s approach illustrates a balanced stance. He allocates only a measured portion of his portfolio to the stock and keeps the rest in cash so he can add on further weakness if needed. He believes in the growth story but accepts that volatility comes with the territory. Shorter-term traders, by contrast, prefer to wait and see how the market digests the successive share unlocks before deciding on direction.

Ultimately, whether $135 represents a buying opportunity depends on each investor’s time horizon and risk tolerance. SpaceX still possesses formidable technology and market positions. Yet turning that potential fully into share-price performance will require time and further proof through results. Now that the stock has returned to its offering price, the market is once again asking investors a clear question: How much do you trust this company’s future? And do you see SpaceX primarily as a space company or as an AI infrastructure company?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and at your own risk.